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What does any of this have to do with the fact that crime rates in Houston have been dropping for years, while gun-control paradises like the United Kingdom have increasing violence?

- Jim

Probably Houston and all its suburbs are 6 million, but most of the "fun" takes place inside the 610 loop or west along Beechnut.

Actually, most cities are like that. In Chicago you can go in minutes from a perfectly peaceful middle-class neighborhood to a slum that makes Juarez look like a garden spot.

- Jim

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, the population of Harris County was 4,092,459 in 2010.

http://2010.census.gov/news/releases/op ... -cn37.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

- Jim

rmr1923 wrote:yep, i don't have a link to the source but i recall a study recently showing that there is actually less crime now than 20 years ago, ...

This information is correct and it is from the FBI Uniform Crime Report. The point where the upward crime rate turned downward was around 1993.

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=28228" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

- Jim

You would have to get city data that was broken down by block and correlate it with changes in public transit routes. I have never seen this done.

There was a huge kerfuffle in Cobb County, Georgia, when the Atlanta public transportation system wanted to extend a subway line into Cobb County. I don't know what became of that.

I have an open mind about the issue, but I doubt criminals use public transportation that much.

I have noticed in Galveston County (which has very limited public transportation) that many crimes are committed in the quick-in-quick-out areas close to the interstate.

- Jim

What happened in six months? Are they still in business?

- Jim

rmr1923 wrote:... an acquaintance ... told me a while back that there was a study done that linked Metro bus stops with a general increase in crime. he said the data showed that, in general, when a Metro bus stop is placed in an area where there's previously not been access to public transportation, crime in those neighborhoods increased substantially.

I'm flattered, but I am not an expert at all.

First, I don't know whether or not this is true in Houston or anywhere else. Not because I haven't looked, but because I can't find data that is broken down that finely. The published data usually goes no finer than by ZIP code and year.

Second, this topic is radioactive. Some residents of certain neighborhoods don't want "those people" to have convenient access. At the same time, some of those people work as housekeepers, nannies, etc., in those neighborhoods.

I have no informed opinion about it, and I live 50 feet from a city bus stop.

- Jim

Harris County and the City of Houston have a population of about 4 million. It is the fourth most populous metropolitan area in the U.S. It is not even in the top 10 in terms of murder rate per capita.

New Orleans, Detroit, Baltimore, and "gun-free" Washington DC are the perennial contenders for the top rating.

You can slice and dice this data all day:
http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offens ... icide.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

- Jim

The peak of the "crack wars" was around 1992. After that the rate of murder and aggravated assault dropped steadily until the present.

The trouble with any raw number like homicides on one weekend is that the underlying causes are ignored. Most murder victims are either victims of domestic violence or involved in drug trafficking and other gang activity. They are not unsuspecting people killed by random violence (like the Tucson shooting).

The episodes that philip964 posted at the beginning of this thread were all fairly exceptional as random and unanticipated crimes.

- Jim

I should not have stated a single year for the complicated history of drug prohibition in the U.S. Various drugs were regulated at the state level before the feds got into the act, and laws changed every few years.

The point that I was trying to make is that violent crime existed when no drugs were illegal (and alcohol was only taxed), and decriminalizing or legalizing drugs would not make crime go away.

Gangs smuggle whatever happens to be illegal at the time, along with running illegal gambling, prostitution, extortion, and bribery rackets. They also engage in organized vehicle theft and burglary along with non-violent crime such as forgery, scams, and identity theft.

- Jim

Thanks and you're welcome.

You can research this topic easily enough. I'm not a criminologist and have no formal education or experience in that field. I just have read this and that over the years, and found the results that I stated convincing.

- Jim

I won't try to prove it tonight, but there is no correlation between the economy and crime.

Honest people don't often start committing crimes because they are unemployed or broke. Having a conscience makes committing a crime too difficult.

A few do commit violent crime. A few more get involved in shoplifting or scams of various sorts.

The main factor in the rate of violent crime is the number of impoverished, uneducated young men in society. That demographic group has been shrinking since about 1990, and so has the rate of violent crime.

Drug prohibition contributes to the level of organized criminal activity (as alcohol prohibition in the U.S. did in the 1920s). However, prohibition is not the sole reason. Even if you could buy heroin and cocaine legally (as one could until 1934), some people would be unable to restrain themselves from violence.

- Jim

No. In every category of crime, 2010 was either lower than or about the same as 2009.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/cr ... ls/table-4" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

You can't project the trend for 2011 from a few incidents. There were about 11,000 violent crimes in Houston in 2010. That's about 30 per day. The Houston Chronicle doesn't publish half of them on any normal day.

Don't fall for the century-old newspaper trick of creating a phony "crime wave" by reporting every crime or arrest.

Also don't fall for the technique of publicizing every crime or stupid accident involving a firearm. You know the agenda behind that.

I don't know how an accident in Oregon has anything to do with anyone in Houston.

- Jim