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philip964 wrote: ↑Tue May 19, 2020 3:33 pm https://www.wsj.com/articles/brazils-nu ... 1589843694

Nurses dieing in Brazil.

Surely not - in the country led by “the Trump of the tropics”?

Rob72 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:06 pm

03Lightningrocks wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:46 pm This article suggests we would be better off if the vulnerable were sheltered and the rest just went about life as normal. Flattening the curve just drags it out.

https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/epidemiolog ... ns-lifted/


I am no

Excellent usable information. Thanks for the link.

Look farther for sources. 40+ years academic epidemiology, 15 of that in the highly-politicized sub-specialty of HIV epi. No noted pubs.

WITTKOWSKI: We had two other SARS viruses before. Or, coronaviruses. It’s not the first coronavirus that comes out, and it won’t be the last. And for all respiratory diseases, we have the same type of an epidemic. If you leave it alone, it comes for two weeks, it peaks, and it goes for two weeks and it’s gone.

Covid does not behave or respond like a SARS virus. His number (two weeks) is ignorant, pedantic, and condescending. He is prognosticating on a false asset allocation model, assuming primary respiratory effect, as well.

One of the problems with this approach is that this unmitigated “peak” would be socially and politically unacceptable.

Liberty wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:10 pm

striker55 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:23 pm People don't get it, whole families going to Walmart, mom dad and kids. Just one adult should go. Galveston beaches being closed because people aren't smart enough to stay home. NYC kids out playing basketball. Houston area has 997 cases when just a few days ago the number was around 300. Stay home!

I think closing the beaches in Galveston was unnecessary. I was out on the beaches yesterday before the surprise closure order. There were very few people. People weren't just obeying the 6 ft rule, they were following a 200-yard social distancing rule. A walk on a near-empty beach is pretty harmless and has done my mental health a lot of good. I think that City just hates seeing people enjoying themselves and was looking for a way to take a little bit of joy from people's lives. City is run by restaurant mafia and is butthurt cause the county shut down the restaurants.

Just guessing, but maybe closing the beaches was more of an attempt at keeping people from more infected areas from coming into Galveston - removing a temptation for those considering Galveston as a travel/vacation destination?

Rob72 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 4:01 pm

srothstein wrote: ↑Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:31 pm I found this article on why we should not be trying to flatten the curve. Interesting read.

https://www.pensford.com/why-flattening ... rS7gYJ6fPE

Silo-thinking. Quarantine buys time to develop treatments/vaccines, to localize hotspots so that resources may be allocated rather than having the same problem everywhere. I'm a research nurse, actively working. It helps.

Yes, Pennsford is a financial consultant that, only sees this in financial terms, is very quick to put a price on human life, and misses two key points. (1) Second and third wave infections will not be as bad as the first, due to the herd immunity provided by those who survived the first wave of infection, as well as better testing and preparedness, and the greater likelihood of new vaccines or therapeutic drugs. (2) More importantly, they ignore that the main goal of flattening the curve is to avoid overwhelming the health care system, as has happened in Wuhan, Italy, and Spain. They argue that leaders should act on economic, as opposed to medical, concerns, but ignore the reality that politicians are ultimately driven by political concerns. Trump’s initial dismissive approach changed when pictures came out of Italy showing critically ill patients on cots in tents on the sidewalks in front of hospitals. His hope of “filling the churches on Easter” dimmed when we saw patients lying on blankets on the floors of hospital hallways in Spain. Scenes like that in hospitals of American states with big Electoral College numbers would not bode well for November re-election hopes.

LDP wrote: ↑Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:05 pm So the dimocratic libtards who employ their scare tactics in our state claim that with the current lenient measures, TX will see 1/2 million dead from the virus.

Do you have a source for this claim of 500,000 potential deaths in Texas?

philip964 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 9:35 pm I think we have discussed that this virus might be a test of socialized medicine.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-are-th ... 1584799200

England has both a public and private healthcare system.

If you have $425 you can get a test.

It will certainly be a test of our health care system. Texas has about 45,000 hospital beds, of which, about 10%, or 4500 are ICU level beds. These are about 50% occupied at any given time, leaving a spare statewide ICU capacity of about 2250 beds.

The consistent numbers on COVID19 from Asia, to Europe, to the US, are that about 20% will develop serious symptoms, with about 5% requiring ICU level treatment, and 2% will die

California estimates that about 50% of residents could contract COVID19, but let’s be very conservative and assume that 1 in 20, or 5%, of the ~30 million Texans will become infected. Thus, 30,000,000 x 0.05 x 0.05 gives us 75,000 critically ill Texans for the 2250 available ICU beds, and 30,000 deaths. Of course, hospitals can convert some normal care beds to ICU level, but also consider that a number of doctors and nurses will fall ill. This is what is at stake in our efforts to contain the spread of the virus.