Many speculators are in loss mode on their held ammo purchases from the panic "buy" period. I believe we reached zero potential differential in the last weeks of June. As manufacturers continue to increase inventory levels to suppliers and prices continue to decline, we should now begin to see a panic "sell" period as speculators attempt to convert their inventories to cash. Are you ready?Dadtodabone wrote:I'd considered this Price Arbitrage, and a quite risky form of it at that. True arbitrage requires simultaneous execution of both legs of the transaction, virtually impossible to do in a non-electronic market. The fellow buying and holding, is courting execution risk that no true arbitrageur would ever consider. The players who were early to the ammo market, September/October buyers, have probably done well, while those in by late December, early January who held inventory in expection of a ban, or made a purchase in that period, the guys who paid $.50-.60 per round for tula 5.56, have seen their potential differential decline by 50% to date.
As retail inventories continue to increase there will be more negative pricing pressure on the online traders. I'm expecting zero potential differential in 6-8 weeks. At that point well have a "Tulip" market.
In firearms, differentials have evaporated in the period post the Reid statement on the AWB.
YMMV
Search found 4 matches
Return to “Effects of ammo shortages”
- Thu Sep 05, 2013 5:20 pm
- Forum: General Gun, Shooting & Equipment Discussion
- Topic: Effects of ammo shortages
- Replies: 50
- Views: 7247
Re: Effects of ammo shortages
- Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:21 pm
- Forum: General Gun, Shooting & Equipment Discussion
- Topic: Effects of ammo shortages
- Replies: 50
- Views: 7247
Re: Effects of ammo shortages
lol, There are several proponents of the "Wisdom of Crowds" out there, or what I call the "who wants to be a pauper" school of securities analysis. Most, I fear, have never taken a prob and stat class.Jumping Frog wrote:Channeling a mix of Charles McKay and Yogi Berra, it is Extraordinary Popular Delusions And The Madness Of Crowds all over again.Dadtodabone wrote:At that point well have a "Tulip" market.
- Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:08 pm
- Forum: General Gun, Shooting & Equipment Discussion
- Topic: Effects of ammo shortages
- Replies: 50
- Views: 7247
Re: Effects of ammo shortages
I'd considered this Price Arbitrage, and a quite risky form of it at that. True arbitrage requires simultaneous execution of both legs of the transaction, virtually impossible to do in a non-electronic market. The fellow buying and holding, is courting execution risk that no true arbitrageur would ever consider. The players who were early to the ammo market, September/October buyers, have probably done well, while those in by late December, early January who held inventory in expection of a ban, or made a purchase in that period, the guys who paid $.50-.60 per round for tula 5.56, have seen their potential differential decline by 50% to date.
As retail inventories continue to increase there will be more negative pricing pressure on the online traders. I'm expecting zero potential differential in 6-8 weeks. At that point well have a "Tulip" market.
In firearms, differentials have evaporated in the period post the Reid statement on the AWB.
YMMV
As retail inventories continue to increase there will be more negative pricing pressure on the online traders. I'm expecting zero potential differential in 6-8 weeks. At that point well have a "Tulip" market.
In firearms, differentials have evaporated in the period post the Reid statement on the AWB.
YMMV
- Sat Mar 30, 2013 2:58 pm
- Forum: General Gun, Shooting & Equipment Discussion
- Topic: Effects of ammo shortages
- Replies: 50
- Views: 7247
Re: Effects of ammo shortages
My BIL has accumulated 17k rounds .223, 5.56, 9mm, .45acp & gap.bigbang wrote:Maybe I should wait for them to have garage sales in 2014. Whether or not associated with a divorce.CC Italian wrote:My father owns his own residential service business and he has personally seen pallets of ammo in peoples garages. Thousands of rounds in the suburbs in each house! When I say thousands I mean tens of thousands in each house is not uncommon!
He usually goes to the range to zero before hunting season, including round(s) expended during season, annual usage 20-25 rounds. None of which are in the aforementioned 17k accumulation. My sister states it's like an addiction, he can't stop, and she can't park in the garage anymore. Thankfully money isn't a problem. Yet.