Grayling813 wrote: ↑Tue Dec 08, 2020 10:14 pmAnd when this suit goes nowhere, when SCOTUS is shown to be corrupted and in the pockets of the communists, what do the aggrieved states do next?
I don't think the SCOTUS is corrupted right now. As Pawpaw pointed out, there are at least three relatively new justices appointed by Trump who are pretty confirmed conservatives and I believe them to be honest. I think Alito and Thomas would also be honest and fair in this case. I am not so sure about the rest.
The good news is that the case is, as I understand it, actually resting on some pretty fair legal grounds and SCOTUS precedent. If the case gets to a decision on its merits, I think it will be decided against the 4 defendant states. Bush v. Gore established pretty firmly that you cannot change the rules for counting the ballots after the election started. It also established that all counties in a state must interpret the law in the same way. The other parts of the case, that it takes a legislature to change the election rules for a presidential election, not a governor or elections administrator or even a court decision, seem like a clear cut case also.
But I am seriously in doubt that it will get that far. I believe there is a good chance that the question of standing will be the grounds for the decision and it won't be the way I hope. The claim laid out about debasing our votes just seems weak to me.
But along with this, I have been gaming out possible results. Even if Texas wins the case, will it make a difference in the election? The rule is that the president must get more than half the electoral votes to win. Currently, that is 270 out of 538 possible. The only way I see that Trump can be re-elected is if the courts rule in his favor on all four states and give him the electoral votes. The court could do this, but I doubt it would because the ruling itself would violate the Constitution where it says the state legislature gets to choose its electors. So, I am guessing the most likely result is to invalidate the current election certification and tell the legislatures to choose their electors again. They might do it by recounting the legal votes (if there is time) or the legislatures will probably decide to pick the electors themselves. If they decide to pick them, some of the states might pick the same electors because they are local politicians trying to get re-elected. Can you see their next campaign if they did not pick the ones the majority of the media will claim are the expressed will of the voting public?
Now there is the possibility that some states may not get to name new electors due to the time constraints. If all of them did not get to vote it lowers the threshold to 239 (538-62 = 476, half is 238, so a majority is 239). Trump only has 232 so he would still lose.
So, to win, Trump has to pick up enough of the electors plus have some states not send in votes. If all of the states don't send in he loses. If the same electors get sent in by the legislatures, he loses. If all of the states send in electors, Trump MIGHT be able to win while losing the electors from one state depending on the state.
I hate this analysis, but this is a case where I would rather be pessimistic so I can be pleasantly surprised than get my hopes up and be extremely disappointed.
And the title of this thread should be “Texas to the rescue of our Republic”
I fully agree with this.